Rapid Insights: Bodkin and the Rise of a New Kind of Protagonist
This Thursday, Netflix is releasing a new dramedy series that will play up true crime and add to a recent trend in modern protagonists: podcasters investigating a murder. Joining the likes of Peacock’s Based on a True Story, Hulu’s Only Murders in the Building, and Apple TV+’s Truth Be Told, this new show, which includes SNL’s Will Forte in its cast, will follow three podcasters looking into the mysterious disappearance of several strangers in a tiny Irish town.
Here’s what you need to know about Bodkin:
Vault AI uses index scores to describe the impact a given story/theme/element will have on specific KPIs:
Who’s the audience for these podcast-based series?
Mature adults. All four of these shows appeal to a heavily older audience, landing at 70-76% aged 30+–a sweet spot that’s older than the typical podcast listener, potentially because of aged-up casts and darker themes. The gender skew, however, varies by series, with Only Murders and Truth Be Told skewing mostly female (63-64%) but Based on a True Story leaning more male (56%). For Bodkin, we’re predicting a gender-balanced viewership (52% male / 48% female).
What does Bodkin have in common with the other shows?
Comedy derived from its podcasters. Bodkin will be driving in a lane similar to both Based on a True Story and Only Murders in that its tone depends on a heavy dose of humor–in Bodkin’s case, sardonic, Twisted Humor (160), contrasting with Based’s Awkward & Funny Moments (130) and Only Murders’ Feel Good Humor (148). All three leverage a comical Team-Up (160) of clashing personalities–whether between goofy spouses (Based), cross-generational friends (Only Murders), or mismatched co-workers (Bodkin)–to inject lighter moments into their murderous drama. In this set, Truth Be Told is actually the odd one out; it’s a drama-thriller rather than comedy, and the main character records her podcast largely by herself.
How is Bodkin different from these other series?
It’s bleaker. The emotional experience that will pull audiences into Bodkin is darker and more harrowing, hinging on feelings likeContempt (160), Terror (121), Rage (116), Annoyance (114), andFear (111) as the mystery unfurls, the stakes get higher, and the podcasters grow increasingly (and hilariously) pessimistic. The show will also lean heavily into gallows-style humor and colorful Profanity (160), in stark contrast with its predecessors that found success leveraging more pleasant emotions like Anticipation (128) (Truth Be Told), Love (113) (Only Murders), andAcceptance (117) (Based on a True Story).
How else will Bodkin set itself apart?
With its setting. Bodkin will essentially be a ‘fish out of water’ story, with three big-city podcasters visiting an idyllic (and fictitious) small town in rural Ireland and attempting to break through the locals’ hostility toward strangers. Their dip intoIrish Culture (121) and their sojourn through the country’s beautiful green landscape (Outdoor Adventure, 157) will help with both ratings and bingeability and provide a unique twist on the theme; in contrast, the other three series all take place in familiar American locales.
What keeps these types of series running through multiple seasons?
The Murder Mysteries (130). For all shows of this ilk, the protagonists’ efforts in Solving a Murder (129) and engaging in Investigative Journalism (125) provide the overarching story engine that keeps audiences coming back. Each season brings a brand new case, with viewers eagerly following along as the podcasters follow clues, interview suspects, and finally announce whodunnit. If Bodkin secures a season two, it will be the irresistibility of its small-town murders that get it there.
Methodology
Publicly released trailers for series are evaluated using Vault’s algorithms — utilizing our proprietary 120K+ story element database alongside viewership performance and other datasets — to identify unique combinations of stories, themes, characters, and genre elements that will drive success.
