Mar 31, 2023 Rapid Insights

Rapid Insights: Air’s Iconic Sports History Will Be a Slam Dunk

Next week, Amazon Studios will swish into the wide world of sports (nothing but net!) with the theatrical release of its new biographical sports drama. Directed by Ben Affleck and starring Affleck, Matt Damon, and Viola Davis, the movie chronicles the origin of the iconic Air Jordan sneaker, when a Nike salesman approached then-rookie Michael Jordan with an unprecedented and at-the-time risky multi-million-dollar deal.

Here’s what you need to know about Air:

Vault AI uses index scores to describe the impact a given story/theme/element will have on specific KPIs:

≤79 Disappointing 80–89 Challenging 90–109 Average 110–119 Promising 120+ Outstanding

Who will be buying tickets to this real-life sports drama?

Men 30+. This demo shows the strongest demand (110) for the film and is predicted to make up its largest audience segment (at 41%). Not surprisingly, fans of the Michael Jordan docuseries The Last Dance (130) are all in for this upcoming film. We also see a healthy appetite among fans of the recent successful sports movie Creed III (112).

What is Air’s biggest overall selling point?

Its basis in history. The Air Jordan (160) brand and its Jumpman logo have become so globally recognizable that audiences will be eager to see the story of its birth (Inspired by True Events, 125), especially as that story is tied to a beloved basketball icon.

Why will older men be so interested?

It’s rooted in sports. The film provides a lens into American Sports History (153) and professional basketball culture (NBA, 160), catnip for many in this demographic. Michael Jordan’s then-Rookie (160) status will also be a source of delight for enthusiastic fans who know what’s coming once the deal has been signed.

How can the movie appeal to women?

By leaning into the creative process. The Fashion (135) and pop culture aspects of the shoe’s design and the ingenuity with which Nike courted Jordan (Creativity and Success, 118) will help draw in female viewers less interested in the sports of it all. They’ll also root for Viola Davis’s Tough Mom (141), who, in seeking the best deal for her son, proves to be a powerful force in the negotiations; her character also sets the film apart from similar sports dramas (with a freshness score of 117).

What does Air’s online buzz look like?

Strong. Social media users are primarily tweeting about the movie’s director, cast, and SXSW premiere as well as its links to Michael Jordan, who, though not officially involved, gave the film his blessing.

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Methodology

Publicly released trailers for series are evaluated using Vault’s algorithms — utilizing our proprietary 120K+ story element database alongside viewership performance and other datasets — to identify unique combinations of stories, themes, characters, and genre elements that will drive success.